REVERSAL IN WASHINGTON STATE – AT 7:43 P.M. ET:  A new series of polls puts Patty Murray, non-accomplishing Democratic senator from Washington, well ahead of GOP challenger Dino Rossi.  A week ago Rossi looked like he was essentially even with Murray, widely considered one of the weakest members of the Senate. 

The reason for Murray's advance?  One solidly reported story today said that Murray is going strongly after the women's vote, and emphasizing Rossi's pro-life stance.  Murray is right out of the 1960s, and apparently believes that abortion is the big issue.  In a so-called "progressive" (read "regressive") state like Washington, she may, sadly, be right.  She's now 30 points ahead among women, and it's hard to see how Rossi can counter that.

In fact, in the so-called toss up states, where Senate races are very tight, the odds are against Republicans because these states are fundamentally Democratic.  Carly Fiorina is still running behind Barbara Boxer, twin sister in non-accomplishment with Patty Murray, in California.  And in West Virginia, a race that looked as if it was leaning toward the GOP is now dead even, with popular Democratic Governor Joe Manchin now gaining on GOP challenger John Raese.  Machin is trying to distance himself from the deadly unpopular Barack Obama, and is running an ad showing him shooting – with a real shootin' iron – at a target meant to represent Obama policies.

So we wait.  Right now the best prognosticators have the Republicans winding up with 48 senators on election day, and, if the present trend continues, that may just be right.  But we have three weeks to go, and GOP ad blitzes are coming.

October 13, 2010